The election is go! How will it play out in Scotland?
Have your say in a Jaggy Thistle discussion
The election is go! Woo hoo!
Ahem. Sorry about that, but those of use who inhabit the political world love this stuff.
For us geeks a general election is like the Olympics and the World Cup and Eurovision and the Bake-Off final all wrapped into one.
Rishi Sunak made a rather damp announcement in a Downing Street downpour at 5pm to a soundtrack from protestors in Whitehall of Things Can Only Get Better.
The first thing to say about a July 4 general election is that the timing is awful from a Scottish point of view.
Edinburgh school holidays start Friday 28 June. So do Dundee school holidays. Glasgow school holidays start even earlier on Wednesday 26 June.
Come polling day, many Scottish families will be on the beach.
You can argue whether this matters given the availability - and growing popularity - of postal voting.
But the fact of the matter is that no British prime minister would dream of holding a general election in August, when English schools are off for the summer.
It’s hard to interpret this as anything other than a sign of Scotland’s lack of importance to the prime minister.
Or, perhaps more accurately, its importance relative to the grim political and economic imperatives that have necessitated Sunak going to the country early.
Whatever the rationale, it’s disrespectful. That will not go unnoticed.
So, today’s question for the Jaggy Thistle community is simple: how will the 2024 general election on July 4 pan out in Scotland?
I am keen to hear your views, and I offer some talking points below.
By the way, this will be the last discussion for a while that is open to non-paying subscribers. So if you want more of this, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.
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Here are some questions for you to spark off some thoughts:
# Was there ever a more chaotic election announcement? Or a wetter one?
# What are your hopes for the general election? What would you like to see happen at UK level? And at a Scottish level?
# Do the UK Tories deserve the benefit of the doubt under Sunak, or are they toast?
# Will Labour win a landslide? Or will it be a hung parliament?
# Are the SNP, as the polls suggest, heading for a historic defeat?
# Which high-profile SNP MPs do you think may be at risk?
# If it’s a bad night for the SNP, and heavy losses are mostly to Labour in the urban central belt, what will the post-election SNP feel like?
# Is John Swinney safe in his job as SNP leader and first minister whatever the result, given he is only barely in the door?
# Is he safe even if the SNP does worse than the UK Tories, with heavier pro rata losses?
# For the SNP manifesto, will Swinney ditch Humza Yousaf’s convoluted independence strategy for something simpler and more defensible?
# Is Scotland warming to the idea of Keir Starmer as PM? Or is there still a distance to go?
# Which new Scottish Labour MPs do you think would be contenders for ministerial jobs in a new Labour government?
# Would Ian Murray make a good secretary of state for Scotland? Or does the job require someone with a tad more subtlety?
# What can we expect from the Scottish Labour manifesto?
# Will the Scottish Tory vote hold up as well as recent polls suggest?
# How will the SNP v Tory duel pan out in the north east, where the future of the oil industry has emerged as a key issue?
# What influence could the war in Gaza have in specific Scottish seats?
This is not, of course, an exhaustive list of questions. Please feel free to chip in your thoughts on any aspect of what we can expect in the weeks ahead, and after polling day.
In future weeks we will have other discussions at key moments in the election calendar. Can’t wait. Pure buzzin, as the young folk say. I love this stuff.
And if you’re not particularly a politics fan, don’t worry: in the coming weeks The Jaggy Thistle will continue to offer great journalism on art and popular culture, as well as great documentary photography.
-o0o-
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“A chield’s amang you takin notes, And faith he’ll prent it.” Robert Burns
Before anything else, let's give thanks for the end of this miserable, incompetent, inhumane, Conservative government.
Wonder how many people are involved in a GE election night count? How many might now be unavailable? How many will now have to cancel their holiday plans? Maybe isn’t not many! I don’t know…