Heading for the door. Humza Yousaf at Bute House this afternoon. Credit: PA
Have your say:
Humza Yousaf resigned as leader of the Scottish National Party this morning.
The 39-year-old made an emotional speech at Bute House, his official residence for the past year, becoming tearful as he thanked his wife and daughters.
There will be much analysis of how we got to this moment. Here on the Jaggy Thistle we are more interested in what comes next.
This is your chance to have your say on the future direction of Scottish politics, and the Scottish nation.
In recent weeks you’ve shown how thoughtful and insightful you are in examining Scottish politics. We need your wisdom even more today.
Here are a few of the outstanding questions this evening:
# Will John Swinney, who was deputy first minister under Nicola Sturgeon, give in to pressure to stand as SNP leader?
# If he does, will he be challenged by the likes of Kate Forbes or Jenny Gilruth? Or will Swinney only agree if there is no contest?
John Swinney MSP. Credit: Alamy
# Would Swinney be a caretaker first minister for the next couple of months, while a leadership contest is held?
# Or would he be a proper, permanent FM in his own right, on his own terms?
# What personal characteristics would Swinney bring to the job of leading Scotland?
# Would he be an asset to the SNP? Or is he yesterday’s man and should get out of the way?
# What political beliefs and ideology would he bring to the job?
# What would be his attitude to the issue of independence?
# What would be the fate of existing Scottish Government policies, priorities and economic outlook?
# How would Swinney be likely to handle an incoming Labour government at Westminster?
Please don’t limit yourself to these questions. the floor is yours. And if you have any personal anecdotes about Swinney you would like to share, please do.
JAGGY THISTLE HOUSE RULES: Politics means passion, we all understand that, but please remember to be courteous and civil in this discussion. This isn’t Twitter. Play the ball, not the man/woman. Our aim is to come to better understanding, not win fluffy toys at the coconut shy.
CRISIS NOTE: I am keeping these discussions open to all while Scottish politics in crisis. But conversations such as this one will soon slip behind the paywall.
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“A chield’s amang you takin notes, And faith he’ll prent it.” Robert Burns
We need competence, and the willingness to put in the graft and to collaborate with and/or challenge and annoy others as necessary to get stuff done. We’ve had half a dozen years of performative and divisive politicking in Holyrood, which has produced bad law, a fractured political culture and a common sense that devolution is not at all what we all wanted it to be. For the SNiPs to turn that round means no more Sturgeon clones, so stand by for fun with that.
Amen to competence, graft and cooperation. But the Sturgeon legacy, in policy terms at least, is now mainstream SNP. Is the party therefore out of step with voters? It might well be. But if it is to change it will be against the instincts of most of the Scottish cabinet and a fair chunk of SNP activists.
It's an absolute hospital pass for anyone who takes on the job. The Greens are bizarrely more powerful now - they are free of the burden of collective responsibility, but they can determine the direction of travel of the government. Kate Forbes won't be able to command a majority, so who's left? Only Swinney has any name recognition in the country, but his "honest John" shtick hasn't really survived the SQA debacle.
Is there any mechanism for a List MSP to step down and be replaced without a by-election? I'm sure Stephen Flynn will be exploring every avenue to get into Holyrood
Here's to a three way contest between Emma Harper, James Dornan and John Mason!!!
There’s no such mechanism for a list MSP. If one stands down the job goes to the next person on the party list at the last Holyrood election. Flynn’s big problem is that the SNP national executive tightened the rules about MPs standing for Holyrood in a bid to block Joanna Cherry from switching, when she was seen as the most dangerous threat to Nicola Sturgeon.
As a student journalist, I took a bus from Glasgow to Perth one Saturday in February 2002, because weeks earlier I'd secured an interview with then SNP leader John Swinney. Luckily, for me, the SNP winter conference had followed a turbulent few days for him, and talk of a Salmond comeback. My story, after possibly the best at that time speech of Swinney's career, was published in the Scottish edition of The Observer the next day. Having talked down Salmond, Swinney survived a couple more years, before Salmond returned. Some 22 years on from that Saturday it seems remarkable -- not in a good way -- that the same central characters are still at the forefront. For all that has occurred, it can undoubtedly be said that Salmond inspired a movement. Lec, after a fall, is revived, Nicola is in purgatory, but her 2nd act will be something significant, probably. And now, John Boy is being lined up for some kind of Alec Douglas-Home caretaker role (for the SNP, not the Tories, though talk of Tartan Tories .once proved useful in the SNP). You get the gist. Plus ca change, Ecosse!
Swinney was more humble than Lec, something of an accidental leader at the time but the intervening 17 years of government is what has changed. Scotland has not prospered as hoped, it has all been very ordinary and sometimes worse, I am told. Although Westminster has a higher level of mendacity and flat-out political lying, Scotland has its own political hegemony, borne of ambition over competence and far too often an utter ambivalence to the state of the nation. Caretaker, yes. Long term? Unlikely. In SNP politics the faces have been the same for a long time, but for the party to prosper this has to be more epilogue than prologue. Out of gas and probably soon out of power.
If the SNP Members choose Kate Forbes, who is quite clearly the most capable candidate the Greens, whom in their current Scottish form combine uselessness with nastiness and appear to have no other qualities to offer, will not play so we will be left with whichever SNP MSP the Greens will put up with. What a mess, bring on an election.
Given the parliamentary arithmetic, I t’s a choice between a candidate who finds favour with the Greens or a candidate who finds favour with the Tories. No candidate can do a deal with Alba.
Let’s be honest, the SNP face continuity (Swinney) vs perceived competence (Forbes), a disparity where they can’t marry up competence, continuity, freshness and progressiveness. No coronation solves any of this (except assuages Green hurt feelings)
Swinney and Forbes have similarities, to be fair. Both are instinctive centrists. If anything, Swinney is more right-wing than Forbes. Swinney was said to be instrumental in talking Yousaf into a council tax freeze, perhaps the worst decision of his year in power.
you put your finger on the hot spot, the SNP don’t need continuity, more of the same, lack of internal debate and a coronation. They need urgently an internal debate about what are they for? I recall Andrew Liddle of the Curiour telling me back in April for my substack podcast that ‘what is Humza as FM FOR?’ That issue is big now, what is the next SNP policy vision for? Why this person? A coronation for internal unity isn’t the necessity
Can someone enlighten me how there could be a general election within weeks? You mean UK general election? This is important. I've got my sabbatical coming up....and going to Scotland for 2 weeks. I don't want all these Fundies bolloxing up my vacation. Got a great trip planned around the Highlands. Skipped Dundee, natch.
My initial reaction was - no idea! The last week has been dizzying with several false starts.
Fair play to HY for a very dignified resignation speech.
I suspect the seeds of this go back a long way. NS was AS successor from early on. Who was NS successor? Don’t laugh now but it allegedly was Derek McKay. That didn’t end well.
NS whole style of leading was me alone and it showed. No other “star” was allowed any space to shine or get experience. Case in point HY.
No one knows how this will pan out. What we do know is that the hegemony is broken and will be reset. I don’t think Swinney can stop that. Forbes will start a rammy that will put the Alba move in the shade.
I tend to think Forbes would be wise to sit this one out. The big reset will come after a Holyrood defeat for the SNP. However taking charge at that point would make her leader of the opposition rather than first minister, a bit of a difference.
I’d sit it out if I were her. Do you want to be left holding the bag for a GE defeat? Or do you come in as a leader of the opposition with the prospect of leading some sort of recovery? It doesn’t have the shine of First Minister obviously, but it probably has better job security.
It's a measure of the desperate dearth of talent in the SNP that John Swinney is being pushed forward as a replacement for Humza. He's clearly said he wanted out of frontline politics and did I read somewhere that he planned to stand down at the next election? So, a caretaker but for what? To thwart Kate Forbes? To pacify the Greens? In the end, after John Swinney escapes they'll still have to face the problem that they only have one credible candidate.
I saw John Swinney a couple of years back in Dunkeld. We walked by each other and did a double-take, since we were both at University together back in 19oatcake. But both thought better of it. Pity he doesn't live there, because he'd be great fodder for headline writers as The Hamlet 'o Dunkeld: "Tay Be or Not Tay Be...." etc, etc....
I think a Swinney stint as FM has to last at least until after a UK general election. He needs to be there to take that hit. The question then is whether he has to take the hit of a Holyrood defeat as well and allow the party a fresh start in a fresh age of opposition, which requires different leadership skills.
If the SNP is serious about Indepenece, Kate Forbes should be FM with a fresh agenda concentrating on a flourishing economy, completing infrastructure projects, reversing the decline in education, addressing the health issues and revising the disasterous housing policies. She has 2 years to turn the ship.
Many people would agree, but she could only do so if the Tories abstained in the key vote confirming her as FM, given that she would be opposed by a number of her own MSPs. But perhaps that's what it takes. Me, I don't think someone so socially conservative can lead a 21st century Scotland. I don't want an FM who regards unmarried mothers as sinners. What message does that send to those women's children? What lesson do they take from that about the nation they call home?
My brother had an alternative take on the Forbes' candidacy. As Lord Protector of a New Calvinist Covenant, she reinstates The Sabbath™ as a day of national gloaming..... and with no ferries running on a Sunday it could really take the pressure off CalMac. It's a rare intersectional win-win for radical theocracy and practical transportation policy.
This is the debate in my household as well. Something about the argument “oh her views are retrograde, but she seems much more competent” doesn’t sit well with me. Perhaps an American bias where performance of religiosity in political life has done so much damage, but that’s my gut instinct. I don’t see how you truly put those views aside, and govern for all citizens in an inclusive way.
Forbes’ views on gay kids born out of wedlock, in particular, are bizarre to anyone outwith her circle of belief. BUT the beliefs of practicing Muslims, such as our last FM, are also extremely conservative by most standards. No one expected Humza to legislate based on his beliefs - why expect that of Forbes? I’m sure she would have more sense, moreover, to NOT lead prayers in Bute House... nor to publish the photies of her doing it.
I think there's an obvious reason why Forbes's religious beliefs have had more attention than Yousaf's. It's that Scotland has, within its recent lived experience., ample evidence of authoritarian Christianity. It's the difference between the New Testament and the Old Testament. I wrote about this sense of unease last year and called it L'Ecosse Profonde: the deep, unforgiving Scotland that is not the pretty Scotland of the postcards or propaganda. It is mostly hidden from plain sight but we know it when we see it.
Ther are few things more authoritarian than a conservative imam. Forbes if I remember correctly referenced Merkel as a conservative (albeit not so much) christian who set aside her personal faith enough to govern in a manner appropriate to society as a whole. If she were to pledge to do similar I’d believe her
Albeit with severe reservations re what some of those beliefs entail. If she were to do that it might even be argued that this might help resolve that OT heritage you describe. Having said all of that, I don’t really think she’ll stand, and it would be sensible of her personally not to.
Well, since I went to Edinburgh University at the same time as John Swinney (we were in the same Politics seminar) I can confirm he's yesterday's man! Given he's the same age as me. But easy quips aside, he's a party animal - in the political sense - so, he'll be guided by what he thinks will be good for SNP. And bizarrely, for once, what might be best for SNP (Swinney getting leadership) might actually be good for Scotland. A bit of competence and back to basics instead of the identity politics pyrotechnics of last few years. Who wouldn't want that? It might not matter in the end, if opinion polls point (as by any measure they should) that SNP get bolloxed at the next election. One thought: Ash Regan must be cursing that she left for Alba. She'd be the compromise candidate right now.....not Swinney. Solid "Team TERF" credentials without the social conservatism of Forbes. What a threap, wrapped up in a stramash, inside a fecht. Jings!
It's quite easy to profile the members of this chat as he was in my European History 1 tutorial! Also in the class was former Finance Secretary Angus Mackay!
Ha! I had to content with John S and Zoe McDonald (daughter of Margo) in my Politics tutorial. Also, Susan Deacon. And Jay Joplin (son of Thatcher agriculture minister, Michael Joplin) who went on to sell sharks in formaldehyde on behalf of Damien Hirst. What a Rogues' Gallery EU was back then!!!!
Zoe's interjections....were basically...."When Scotland is a free and independent country"......"If Scotland were a free and independent country"....."The day Scotland takes its place back in the community of nations". Jay just sat there looking cool in a white linen suit (in January, in Scotland).
The SNP do seem to have got themselves into a bit of a pickle and are overly dependent on the wretched Greens to approve or not approve their choice of leader. I assume Swinney would be acceptable and Forbes not. Bringing back Swinney does seem an admission that their benches are not embarrassed by an excessive amount of talent. A temporary caretaker role while they try and work something out, possibly but anything longer term would seem absurd.
As an aside I was amused that Salmond was counselling Yousaf to put aside divisive identity politics and concentrate on independence. Whatever ones views on independence it is a highly divisive issue very much concerned with identity. It's enough to make a cat laugh.
Can't Angus Robertson run, as the Stalking Horse's Arse candidate? Sorry....the jokes are too easy on this. Must be like shooting fish in a barrel for political pundits. The content possibilities.....for next year....are endless. Political journalism.....SNP's one legacy of economic growth...
It looks increasingly likely that John Swinney will be the caretaker FM and take the inevitable beating both in terms of flack and then defeat in the UK election then stand aside for an leadership contest. No doubt an incredible bourach.
Given that the SNP’s reason for being is independence and that that has been its unifying vision and what kept a widely disparate membership together, it’s hard to see how a new leader can find a new vision which would have to include a pathway to independence. Given that independence is not “frustratingly close” but further away than ever, different politics come into play and the long submerged ideological differences rise to the surface.
Yes, the least convincing part of Humza’s speech today was the bit about being in the last few miles of the independence marathon, with his successor certain to win the prize. I’m not sure anyone believes that.
The potential return of Swinney does call into question the quality of the SNP's politicians, but at the same time I do wonder why any of the younger, more ambitious of their representatives would even want the job right now. Leading a divided SNP and having to make a choice of what way to turn when either option is unpalatable to at least one wing of the party, and then leading them into an election which the opinion polls suggest would result in a big loss of seats. They might not be blamed for that, but it would hugely dent any momentum they had and put them under immediate pressure to turn it around when it might not be possible to.
I think Kate Forbes in particular might be silly to stand again as it would be a huge risk. If she did win it might prove difficult to win a vote to become FM, but if she doesn't then losing two leadership elections might be too damaging to her future prospects.
Whatever his perceived strengths, Swinney taking over certainly doesn't provide a rush of hope or optimism. Given how long he's been around and that he was such a big part of of the Salmond and Sturgeon era, he's hardly a fresh face with fresh ideas. If Yousaf was the continuity candidate, I'm not sure what you'd call Swinney!
If the design of current system of representation at Holyrood was to prevent one party dominating and encourage a more consensual approach to governing Scotland, then it has clearly worked and not worked. Political collaboration has been more apparent than real. The Bute House deal was about getting a green foot in the door where increasingly strident demands left the general public shaking heads and wondering what does this really have to do with me. The current theatre of political sniping and grandstanding is so far removed from the huge issues that crush and bear down of the daily lives of so many, that I am left thinking that none of the current stash be they socially conservative or steady consistency are like to make any real, deep and lasting difference. What are they trying to sell us exactly ? Snake oil salesmen may feel justifiably upset. I suppose politics is often about being in the right place at the right time (eg Liz Truss) although that guarantees nothing without luck and talent (eg Liz Truss). The one who at the moment looks to me most likely to create something in Holyrood that is more unifying for SNP and visionary for the government of Scotland is Stephen Flynn. Unfortunately he happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time hence a Swinney endorsement leaves him room for manoeuvre. In the meantime, Scotland waits. Dinnae haud yer breath, son, my dad used to say. Good advice these days.
I admire Flynn's fluency on his feet, but what does he believe, other than his own suitability for power? Also, some of his rhetoric is too reminiscent of Salmond for my liking.
Aye, maybe there’s something of the King across the water appeal about him. I listened to Salmond on the radio on Friday and his smug patronising tone reminds me why Scottish politics is well rid of him.
Democracy is dead in Scotland. Every new SNP FM will face a vote of no confidence by parties who will never win enough seats to run Scotland. No laws that the People of Scotland want will be passed as the Parties do Politics not Democracy. Holyrood will become WM 2.0.
There is certainly a danger that a parliament designed for consensus struggles to operate in a polity divided down the middle on the constitution, in which even minority governments behave in a majoritarian manner.
People should remember that Alex Salmond ran a perfectly competent minority government gaining support from Unionist parties on an issue by issue basis between 2007-2011. I suspect Forbes would find a reasonably positive response from them if she were elected because she is far closer to their way of thinking than she is to the Greens on pretty well every issue you care to mention – apart obviously from independence. As that’s on the back burner for the time being, it’s not really an issue. And it would leave the Greens isolated. If she was elected I suspect the Unionist parties would abstain in the vote to confirm her as FM.
Perhaps the key question is whether she wants the poisoned chalice at all. The other great unknown is what sort of people have been leaving the SNP in droves. But given she came within a hairsbreadth of winning a year ago despite all the mud thrown at her suggests to me she would have a good chance of winning - if she decides to run.
I don’t think Swinney wants the job, given he was trying for some time to step back from the front line, but equally he has a strong sense of duty that may compel him to run. In which case Forbes would do well to stand back and keep her powder dry.
Good post, who has left and who has stayed in the SNP is a great question and if Forbes is well she will only run this time if Swinney decides not to. I don't know if Flynn would be a strong opponent for her if he moves parliaments at the next Holyrood election. I suspect he thinks he would be.
If continuity wasn’t going to cut it last time, and Forbes was right about, a continuity retread certainly won’t cut it this time either. I think she’ll run. I imagine COSLA would like her too after their experience of Swinney😊
You may well be right, my thinking was that it's all a bit of a mess and time is on her side and just before they get a drubbing in the GE may not be the time to take over.
On the other hand, whoever becomes leader can't get the blame when the good ship SNP sinks further below the waterline because the GE is too close to change course. But the Holyrood election is another matter, there's time to recover for that
It will be the continuity candidate's continuity candidate of course, it he wants it. I'm sure Swinney is a decent person but an inspirational leader he ain't and his track record is dismal. This whole bourach is a result of the crazy branch of electoral PR we have, the AV system. The Greens got just 35k votes in the main 73 seats and 255k in the second, 'feeling sorry for the losers' list. And they get two disruptive and petulant Cabinet members who push through policies that the general public don't share.
By the by, list MSPs. What do they even do in our over-governed country?
Even the much-vaunted gas boiler scheme is quietly scrapped. I had one of those eco surveys done in my house – my gas boiler is weeks older than 10 years – and I expected they might recommend heat pump, or solar, or windmill on the chimney, insulation even. But no. A new gas boiler.
Even after a quarter lot a century people, still don't understand the Holyrood electoral system. Definitely time for an overhaul. I like "the continuity candidate's continuity candidate".
One thing no-one has really commented is that Joanna Cherry is backing Kate Forbes. Apart from the fact they would would both agree on what is a woman, socially I doubt if there is much else, if anything, they would agree on when it comes to social policy. Do people think her support is genuine or done more in revenge again the SNP establishment for what they did to her?
Forbes needs a snappy election slogan that captures her youthful, competent, optimistic qualities....yet alludes to her religious convictions. "Scotland, Opportunity Knox". Thoughts?
What should happen…John Swinney - nice man, safe pair of hands, should take it on u til after a general election. He should invite Kaye Forbes to be in charge of the economy and business and to be Deputy Leader. That would help to unite the party, ought to give business some comfort and allow the party time to decide if they really do want Forbes. But at least the tiller would not be quite so adrift…
It’s as much to do with his demeanour and process as anything else. There would be no rash decisions under Swinney. Everything would receive due deliberation.
I saw a quote from an anonymous SNP Minister that not every SNP would vote for Forbes as FM if she was elected leader. I'd love to see that – the SNP would then be in civil war, MSPs against the members. Tartan Tories - rats in a sack!!
If a Kate Forbes leadership fractured the pro-indy parties into component parts: the Scottish Greens, the Sturgeonite SNP, and the Forbesite SNP (perhaps absorbing Alba)… wouldn’t that be quite healthy for democracy in Scotland?
The Sturgeonite party would have to rebrand, but that would hardly be a problem - she famously hated the SNP name. And Màiri McAllan could lead it.
There has definitely been a “sorting hat” process recently, and the divisions you describe are very real, but tbh I can’t see any such rationalisation any time soon. The prize of a big tent SNP is still worth fighting for, despite everything.
The SNP and Scottish Greens have stitched up the pro-independence vote in a very advantageous way for the Holyrood arithmetic. They would be mad to let that slip away. But they have been doing a lot of mad things lately…
Yeah, bizarro soft-porn take from New Statesman, as if they were anticipating "Calvinist Sexy" to be a thing on next year's fashion cat-walks Let's get back in the habit, ladies!
We need competence, and the willingness to put in the graft and to collaborate with and/or challenge and annoy others as necessary to get stuff done. We’ve had half a dozen years of performative and divisive politicking in Holyrood, which has produced bad law, a fractured political culture and a common sense that devolution is not at all what we all wanted it to be. For the SNiPs to turn that round means no more Sturgeon clones, so stand by for fun with that.
Amen to competence, graft and cooperation. But the Sturgeon legacy, in policy terms at least, is now mainstream SNP. Is the party therefore out of step with voters? It might well be. But if it is to change it will be against the instincts of most of the Scottish cabinet and a fair chunk of SNP activists.
It's an absolute hospital pass for anyone who takes on the job. The Greens are bizarrely more powerful now - they are free of the burden of collective responsibility, but they can determine the direction of travel of the government. Kate Forbes won't be able to command a majority, so who's left? Only Swinney has any name recognition in the country, but his "honest John" shtick hasn't really survived the SQA debacle.
Is there any mechanism for a List MSP to step down and be replaced without a by-election? I'm sure Stephen Flynn will be exploring every avenue to get into Holyrood
Here's to a three way contest between Emma Harper, James Dornan and John Mason!!!
There’s no such mechanism for a list MSP. If one stands down the job goes to the next person on the party list at the last Holyrood election. Flynn’s big problem is that the SNP national executive tightened the rules about MPs standing for Holyrood in a bid to block Joanna Cherry from switching, when she was seen as the most dangerous threat to Nicola Sturgeon.
As a student journalist, I took a bus from Glasgow to Perth one Saturday in February 2002, because weeks earlier I'd secured an interview with then SNP leader John Swinney. Luckily, for me, the SNP winter conference had followed a turbulent few days for him, and talk of a Salmond comeback. My story, after possibly the best at that time speech of Swinney's career, was published in the Scottish edition of The Observer the next day. Having talked down Salmond, Swinney survived a couple more years, before Salmond returned. Some 22 years on from that Saturday it seems remarkable -- not in a good way -- that the same central characters are still at the forefront. For all that has occurred, it can undoubtedly be said that Salmond inspired a movement. Lec, after a fall, is revived, Nicola is in purgatory, but her 2nd act will be something significant, probably. And now, John Boy is being lined up for some kind of Alec Douglas-Home caretaker role (for the SNP, not the Tories, though talk of Tartan Tories .once proved useful in the SNP). You get the gist. Plus ca change, Ecosse!
Swinney was more humble than Lec, something of an accidental leader at the time but the intervening 17 years of government is what has changed. Scotland has not prospered as hoped, it has all been very ordinary and sometimes worse, I am told. Although Westminster has a higher level of mendacity and flat-out political lying, Scotland has its own political hegemony, borne of ambition over competence and far too often an utter ambivalence to the state of the nation. Caretaker, yes. Long term? Unlikely. In SNP politics the faces have been the same for a long time, but for the party to prosper this has to be more epilogue than prologue. Out of gas and probably soon out of power.
Given the new rules on boilers, we will all be out of gas soon enough.
If the SNP Members choose Kate Forbes, who is quite clearly the most capable candidate the Greens, whom in their current Scottish form combine uselessness with nastiness and appear to have no other qualities to offer, will not play so we will be left with whichever SNP MSP the Greens will put up with. What a mess, bring on an election.
Given the parliamentary arithmetic, I t’s a choice between a candidate who finds favour with the Greens or a candidate who finds favour with the Tories. No candidate can do a deal with Alba.
So let me this straight, the SNP are proposing this is how thing are to be:
Salmond, Swinney, Sturgeon, Salmond, Sturgeon, Yousaf and Swinney?
After 30+ years they don’t have anyone else? Really? Torpor and nobody new? Scottish Labour must be frolicking with joy by this point.
It certainly doesn’t say New Scotland.
Let’s be honest, the SNP face continuity (Swinney) vs perceived competence (Forbes), a disparity where they can’t marry up competence, continuity, freshness and progressiveness. No coronation solves any of this (except assuages Green hurt feelings)
Is it gonna be a stitch up from "The Men in Gray Kilts"??? Cherry seems to think so...saying something nice about Swinney then getting out the dirk!
I think Swinney is the only man in a grey kilt left!
Swinney and Forbes have similarities, to be fair. Both are instinctive centrists. If anything, Swinney is more right-wing than Forbes. Swinney was said to be instrumental in talking Yousaf into a council tax freeze, perhaps the worst decision of his year in power.
you put your finger on the hot spot, the SNP don’t need continuity, more of the same, lack of internal debate and a coronation. They need urgently an internal debate about what are they for? I recall Andrew Liddle of the Curiour telling me back in April for my substack podcast that ‘what is Humza as FM FOR?’ That issue is big now, what is the next SNP policy vision for? Why this person? A coronation for internal unity isn’t the necessity
The problem is, there could be a general election within weeks. An election campaign is not the time for soul-searching and new directions.
Can someone enlighten me how there could be a general election within weeks? You mean UK general election? This is important. I've got my sabbatical coming up....and going to Scotland for 2 weeks. I don't want all these Fundies bolloxing up my vacation. Got a great trip planned around the Highlands. Skipped Dundee, natch.
Yousaf surely says New Scotland?
My initial reaction was - no idea! The last week has been dizzying with several false starts.
Fair play to HY for a very dignified resignation speech.
I suspect the seeds of this go back a long way. NS was AS successor from early on. Who was NS successor? Don’t laugh now but it allegedly was Derek McKay. That didn’t end well.
NS whole style of leading was me alone and it showed. No other “star” was allowed any space to shine or get experience. Case in point HY.
No one knows how this will pan out. What we do know is that the hegemony is broken and will be reset. I don’t think Swinney can stop that. Forbes will start a rammy that will put the Alba move in the shade.
I tend to think Forbes would be wise to sit this one out. The big reset will come after a Holyrood defeat for the SNP. However taking charge at that point would make her leader of the opposition rather than first minister, a bit of a difference.
I’d sit it out if I were her. Do you want to be left holding the bag for a GE defeat? Or do you come in as a leader of the opposition with the prospect of leading some sort of recovery? It doesn’t have the shine of First Minister obviously, but it probably has better job security.
It's a measure of the desperate dearth of talent in the SNP that John Swinney is being pushed forward as a replacement for Humza. He's clearly said he wanted out of frontline politics and did I read somewhere that he planned to stand down at the next election? So, a caretaker but for what? To thwart Kate Forbes? To pacify the Greens? In the end, after John Swinney escapes they'll still have to face the problem that they only have one credible candidate.
I saw John Swinney a couple of years back in Dunkeld. We walked by each other and did a double-take, since we were both at University together back in 19oatcake. But both thought better of it. Pity he doesn't live there, because he'd be great fodder for headline writers as The Hamlet 'o Dunkeld: "Tay Be or Not Tay Be...." etc, etc....
I am going to file away "Tay be or not Tay be" for use at some future point, and claim it as my own, of course.
I'm better than Chat GPT......
I think a Swinney stint as FM has to last at least until after a UK general election. He needs to be there to take that hit. The question then is whether he has to take the hit of a Holyrood defeat as well and allow the party a fresh start in a fresh age of opposition, which requires different leadership skills.
If the SNP is serious about Indepenece, Kate Forbes should be FM with a fresh agenda concentrating on a flourishing economy, completing infrastructure projects, reversing the decline in education, addressing the health issues and revising the disasterous housing policies. She has 2 years to turn the ship.
Many people would agree, but she could only do so if the Tories abstained in the key vote confirming her as FM, given that she would be opposed by a number of her own MSPs. But perhaps that's what it takes. Me, I don't think someone so socially conservative can lead a 21st century Scotland. I don't want an FM who regards unmarried mothers as sinners. What message does that send to those women's children? What lesson do they take from that about the nation they call home?
My brother had an alternative take on the Forbes' candidacy. As Lord Protector of a New Calvinist Covenant, she reinstates The Sabbath™ as a day of national gloaming..... and with no ferries running on a Sunday it could really take the pressure off CalMac. It's a rare intersectional win-win for radical theocracy and practical transportation policy.
This is the debate in my household as well. Something about the argument “oh her views are retrograde, but she seems much more competent” doesn’t sit well with me. Perhaps an American bias where performance of religiosity in political life has done so much damage, but that’s my gut instinct. I don’t see how you truly put those views aside, and govern for all citizens in an inclusive way.
Forbes’ views on gay kids born out of wedlock, in particular, are bizarre to anyone outwith her circle of belief. BUT the beliefs of practicing Muslims, such as our last FM, are also extremely conservative by most standards. No one expected Humza to legislate based on his beliefs - why expect that of Forbes? I’m sure she would have more sense, moreover, to NOT lead prayers in Bute House... nor to publish the photies of her doing it.
I think there's an obvious reason why Forbes's religious beliefs have had more attention than Yousaf's. It's that Scotland has, within its recent lived experience., ample evidence of authoritarian Christianity. It's the difference between the New Testament and the Old Testament. I wrote about this sense of unease last year and called it L'Ecosse Profonde: the deep, unforgiving Scotland that is not the pretty Scotland of the postcards or propaganda. It is mostly hidden from plain sight but we know it when we see it.
Ther are few things more authoritarian than a conservative imam. Forbes if I remember correctly referenced Merkel as a conservative (albeit not so much) christian who set aside her personal faith enough to govern in a manner appropriate to society as a whole. If she were to pledge to do similar I’d believe her
Albeit with severe reservations re what some of those beliefs entail. If she were to do that it might even be argued that this might help resolve that OT heritage you describe. Having said all of that, I don’t really think she’ll stand, and it would be sensible of her personally not to.
Well, since I went to Edinburgh University at the same time as John Swinney (we were in the same Politics seminar) I can confirm he's yesterday's man! Given he's the same age as me. But easy quips aside, he's a party animal - in the political sense - so, he'll be guided by what he thinks will be good for SNP. And bizarrely, for once, what might be best for SNP (Swinney getting leadership) might actually be good for Scotland. A bit of competence and back to basics instead of the identity politics pyrotechnics of last few years. Who wouldn't want that? It might not matter in the end, if opinion polls point (as by any measure they should) that SNP get bolloxed at the next election. One thought: Ash Regan must be cursing that she left for Alba. She'd be the compromise candidate right now.....not Swinney. Solid "Team TERF" credentials without the social conservatism of Forbes. What a threap, wrapped up in a stramash, inside a fecht. Jings!
It's quite easy to profile the members of this chat as he was in my European History 1 tutorial! Also in the class was former Finance Secretary Angus Mackay!
Ha! I had to content with John S and Zoe McDonald (daughter of Margo) in my Politics tutorial. Also, Susan Deacon. And Jay Joplin (son of Thatcher agriculture minister, Michael Joplin) who went on to sell sharks in formaldehyde on behalf of Damien Hirst. What a Rogues' Gallery EU was back then!!!!
I can imagine the tutorials..
Zoe's interjections....were basically...."When Scotland is a free and independent country"......"If Scotland were a free and independent country"....."The day Scotland takes its place back in the community of nations". Jay just sat there looking cool in a white linen suit (in January, in Scotland).
Plus Red Pat...
Nice shout. Pat McFad. He wasn't a Wolverhampton Wanders fan back then! He definitely was a Proto-Blairite in the Labour Club though.
The SNP do seem to have got themselves into a bit of a pickle and are overly dependent on the wretched Greens to approve or not approve their choice of leader. I assume Swinney would be acceptable and Forbes not. Bringing back Swinney does seem an admission that their benches are not embarrassed by an excessive amount of talent. A temporary caretaker role while they try and work something out, possibly but anything longer term would seem absurd.
As an aside I was amused that Salmond was counselling Yousaf to put aside divisive identity politics and concentrate on independence. Whatever ones views on independence it is a highly divisive issue very much concerned with identity. It's enough to make a cat laugh.
Salmond's return to something approaching relevance is the least edifying aspect of this whole saga. Ugh.
Can't Angus Robertson run, as the Stalking Horse's Arse candidate? Sorry....the jokes are too easy on this. Must be like shooting fish in a barrel for political pundits. The content possibilities.....for next year....are endless. Political journalism.....SNP's one legacy of economic growth...
It looks increasingly likely that John Swinney will be the caretaker FM and take the inevitable beating both in terms of flack and then defeat in the UK election then stand aside for an leadership contest. No doubt an incredible bourach.
Given that the SNP’s reason for being is independence and that that has been its unifying vision and what kept a widely disparate membership together, it’s hard to see how a new leader can find a new vision which would have to include a pathway to independence. Given that independence is not “frustratingly close” but further away than ever, different politics come into play and the long submerged ideological differences rise to the surface.
Interesting times.
Yes, the least convincing part of Humza’s speech today was the bit about being in the last few miles of the independence marathon, with his successor certain to win the prize. I’m not sure anyone believes that.
That was the bit where I snorted.
The potential return of Swinney does call into question the quality of the SNP's politicians, but at the same time I do wonder why any of the younger, more ambitious of their representatives would even want the job right now. Leading a divided SNP and having to make a choice of what way to turn when either option is unpalatable to at least one wing of the party, and then leading them into an election which the opinion polls suggest would result in a big loss of seats. They might not be blamed for that, but it would hugely dent any momentum they had and put them under immediate pressure to turn it around when it might not be possible to.
I think Kate Forbes in particular might be silly to stand again as it would be a huge risk. If she did win it might prove difficult to win a vote to become FM, but if she doesn't then losing two leadership elections might be too damaging to her future prospects.
Whatever his perceived strengths, Swinney taking over certainly doesn't provide a rush of hope or optimism. Given how long he's been around and that he was such a big part of of the Salmond and Sturgeon era, he's hardly a fresh face with fresh ideas. If Yousaf was the continuity candidate, I'm not sure what you'd call Swinney!
The too old to upset anybody candidate? I can say this because he’s younger than me!
If the design of current system of representation at Holyrood was to prevent one party dominating and encourage a more consensual approach to governing Scotland, then it has clearly worked and not worked. Political collaboration has been more apparent than real. The Bute House deal was about getting a green foot in the door where increasingly strident demands left the general public shaking heads and wondering what does this really have to do with me. The current theatre of political sniping and grandstanding is so far removed from the huge issues that crush and bear down of the daily lives of so many, that I am left thinking that none of the current stash be they socially conservative or steady consistency are like to make any real, deep and lasting difference. What are they trying to sell us exactly ? Snake oil salesmen may feel justifiably upset. I suppose politics is often about being in the right place at the right time (eg Liz Truss) although that guarantees nothing without luck and talent (eg Liz Truss). The one who at the moment looks to me most likely to create something in Holyrood that is more unifying for SNP and visionary for the government of Scotland is Stephen Flynn. Unfortunately he happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time hence a Swinney endorsement leaves him room for manoeuvre. In the meantime, Scotland waits. Dinnae haud yer breath, son, my dad used to say. Good advice these days.
I admire Flynn's fluency on his feet, but what does he believe, other than his own suitability for power? Also, some of his rhetoric is too reminiscent of Salmond for my liking.
Aye, maybe there’s something of the King across the water appeal about him. I listened to Salmond on the radio on Friday and his smug patronising tone reminds me why Scottish politics is well rid of him.
Amen to that.
Absolutely! (To use a much over used word of Humza’s 😂)
Democracy is dead in Scotland. Every new SNP FM will face a vote of no confidence by parties who will never win enough seats to run Scotland. No laws that the People of Scotland want will be passed as the Parties do Politics not Democracy. Holyrood will become WM 2.0.
There is certainly a danger that a parliament designed for consensus struggles to operate in a polity divided down the middle on the constitution, in which even minority governments behave in a majoritarian manner.
People should remember that Alex Salmond ran a perfectly competent minority government gaining support from Unionist parties on an issue by issue basis between 2007-2011. I suspect Forbes would find a reasonably positive response from them if she were elected because she is far closer to their way of thinking than she is to the Greens on pretty well every issue you care to mention – apart obviously from independence. As that’s on the back burner for the time being, it’s not really an issue. And it would leave the Greens isolated. If she was elected I suspect the Unionist parties would abstain in the vote to confirm her as FM.
Perhaps the key question is whether she wants the poisoned chalice at all. The other great unknown is what sort of people have been leaving the SNP in droves. But given she came within a hairsbreadth of winning a year ago despite all the mud thrown at her suggests to me she would have a good chance of winning - if she decides to run.
I don’t think Swinney wants the job, given he was trying for some time to step back from the front line, but equally he has a strong sense of duty that may compel him to run. In which case Forbes would do well to stand back and keep her powder dry.
Really good question on what kind of member is leaving the SNP, and what kind of member they are leaving behind.
Good post, who has left and who has stayed in the SNP is a great question and if Forbes is well she will only run this time if Swinney decides not to. I don't know if Flynn would be a strong opponent for her if he moves parliaments at the next Holyrood election. I suspect he thinks he would be.
insert "advised" between "well" and "she". There's probably an edit function I've been unable to find.
You can find it in those three wee dots on the right!
I suspect so too! A good conceit of himself.
If continuity wasn’t going to cut it last time, and Forbes was right about, a continuity retread certainly won’t cut it this time either. I think she’ll run. I imagine COSLA would like her too after their experience of Swinney😊
My hunch is she'll fall into line behind Swinney once she has a promise of a return to the Cabinet in a job she'd like.
Why, doesn't she think he is part of the problem?
Good question!
You may well be right, my thinking was that it's all a bit of a mess and time is on her side and just before they get a drubbing in the GE may not be the time to take over.
On the other hand, whoever becomes leader can't get the blame when the good ship SNP sinks further below the waterline because the GE is too close to change course. But the Holyrood election is another matter, there's time to recover for that
It will be the continuity candidate's continuity candidate of course, it he wants it. I'm sure Swinney is a decent person but an inspirational leader he ain't and his track record is dismal. This whole bourach is a result of the crazy branch of electoral PR we have, the AV system. The Greens got just 35k votes in the main 73 seats and 255k in the second, 'feeling sorry for the losers' list. And they get two disruptive and petulant Cabinet members who push through policies that the general public don't share.
By the by, list MSPs. What do they even do in our over-governed country?
Even the much-vaunted gas boiler scheme is quietly scrapped. I had one of those eco surveys done in my house – my gas boiler is weeks older than 10 years – and I expected they might recommend heat pump, or solar, or windmill on the chimney, insulation even. But no. A new gas boiler.
Even after a quarter lot a century people, still don't understand the Holyrood electoral system. Definitely time for an overhaul. I like "the continuity candidate's continuity candidate".
One thing no-one has really commented is that Joanna Cherry is backing Kate Forbes. Apart from the fact they would would both agree on what is a woman, socially I doubt if there is much else, if anything, they would agree on when it comes to social policy. Do people think her support is genuine or done more in revenge again the SNP establishment for what they did to her?
I think Joanna had become something of a one-issue politician of late, so it's probably gender critical camaraderie.
On the other hand Cherry also said the SNP needs a reset – that's one thing it won't get with Swinney!!
Forbes needs a snappy election slogan that captures her youthful, competent, optimistic qualities....yet alludes to her religious convictions. "Scotland, Opportunity Knox". Thoughts?
😆
Wonderful
😄
What should happen…John Swinney - nice man, safe pair of hands, should take it on u til after a general election. He should invite Kaye Forbes to be in charge of the economy and business and to be Deputy Leader. That would help to unite the party, ought to give business some comfort and allow the party time to decide if they really do want Forbes. But at least the tiller would not be quite so adrift…
Agreed! I say much the same thing in my column that’s just gone live at The Times.
But I didn’t say he’d make her deputy leader. Now I wish I had!
It’s the smart thing to do right now.
That was like throwing a small bone to a dog compared to the general tenor of the article, which didn’t exactly gain universal approbation!
The description of Swinney as a “safe pair of hands” is interesting. It was on that basis he was given the education brief. That didn’t end well!
It’s as much to do with his demeanour and process as anything else. There would be no rash decisions under Swinney. Everything would receive due deliberation.
I saw a quote from an anonymous SNP Minister that not every SNP would vote for Forbes as FM if she was elected leader. I'd love to see that – the SNP would then be in civil war, MSPs against the members. Tartan Tories - rats in a sack!!
If a Kate Forbes leadership fractured the pro-indy parties into component parts: the Scottish Greens, the Sturgeonite SNP, and the Forbesite SNP (perhaps absorbing Alba)… wouldn’t that be quite healthy for democracy in Scotland?
The Sturgeonite party would have to rebrand, but that would hardly be a problem - she famously hated the SNP name. And Màiri McAllan could lead it.
There has definitely been a “sorting hat” process recently, and the divisions you describe are very real, but tbh I can’t see any such rationalisation any time soon. The prize of a big tent SNP is still worth fighting for, despite everything.
The SNP and Scottish Greens have stitched up the pro-independence vote in a very advantageous way for the Holyrood arithmetic. They would be mad to let that slip away. But they have been doing a lot of mad things lately…
This is a very interesting piece on Forbes from last year in the New Statesman.
https://www.newstatesman.com/ns-interview/2023/12/kate-forbes-interview-snp-religion-rooted-nomad
It’s a very good profile. But at such length it would have been nice if he’d asked a couple of tough questions. Meow!
She sounds like a grown up to me. Full of contradictions but grappling with them...and in the public sphere.
I agree. It is a bit too loving and the pix are a bit too Calvinist sexy but it does show a different side
Yeah, bizarro soft-porn take from New Statesman, as if they were anticipating "Calvinist Sexy" to be a thing on next year's fashion cat-walks Let's get back in the habit, ladies!