Not an expert on Scotish political geography (yet) but it seems this byelection was in the Scotish part and not the Conservative part which is around Aberdeen, init?
Plus calling it Reform=English nationalism in Scotland seems a mighty take. Could be a plain old protest vote esp with less than 50% people voting.
It was in the more working-class central belt where the Tories, at least in recent years, have not won very much in first-past-the-post contests. As you say the Conservative party strongholds are in Aberdeenshire and the Moray coast but also in the Borders.
I don't disagree that this was a protest vote, but protest votes are no less effective than any other votes in getting people elected.
I don't think I suggested a vote for Reform was a vote for English nationalism, but rather a vote for the broadly disaffected, or "scunnered" as we say in Scotland. A Scottish version of Reform-style English nationalism, if you will.
Aye thanks Kenny, will look up the geography. Indeed protest votes in any direction is powerful. If we engage in the ‘Scottish Reform-style English nationalism’ what would that be except the latest sound bite Mr Fishface comes up with, usually cut ‘n past from the US? Immigration doesn’t seem to move as many in Scotland than North of the border.
Another great post with an excellent perspective Kenny thank you.
It’s almost a Shakespearean tragedy to witness canny Scots giving their vote away to the snake oil salesmen of Reform. I cling to the hope that it’s an ‘up yours’ protest. Most bye-elections do that.
It sticks in the throat that Scotland could follow the racist English with support for Farage. He is pure poison and will pollute Scottish political life for a generation if support grows.
I have always favoured severance and an independent nation of Scotland. Voting Reform is a journey backward into the political abyss.
Change always comes dropping slow. The aftermath of
14 years of Tory rule can’t be undone in a heartbeat.
Good analysis Kenny. Not sure about the Scottish Exceptionalism though. We certainly have a “here’s tae us wha’s like us” mentality at times but just because we are different certainly doesn’t make us exceptional and I’m not convinced many people do. Indeed how can we be exceptional and suffer from an undercurrent of sectarian shame at the same time?
Just because we haven’t voted Tory since 1955?
Disappointed that so many people have bought the snake oil being sold by Farage and his cronies but no country is immune from swallowing populist rhetoric. I sincerely hope it’s a protest vote - but against what?
Possibly but it's impossible to know if and when they will turn up, and at what election. Unlike the Labour and SNP core vote these people are on nobody's spreadsheet. Nobody knows who they are. No activist will turn up on their doorstep on polling day in a GOTV operation. They are ghosts. But when they move there can be unexpected results.
Also, opinion polls miss them because these people are not political enthusiasts and are accordingly not members of the online panels from which pollsters select their respondents.
Excellent analysis- as usual
Thanks Michael. Scottish politics tends to reinvent itself every few years and this is the new iteration.
Not an expert on Scotish political geography (yet) but it seems this byelection was in the Scotish part and not the Conservative part which is around Aberdeen, init?
Plus calling it Reform=English nationalism in Scotland seems a mighty take. Could be a plain old protest vote esp with less than 50% people voting.
It was in the more working-class central belt where the Tories, at least in recent years, have not won very much in first-past-the-post contests. As you say the Conservative party strongholds are in Aberdeenshire and the Moray coast but also in the Borders.
I don't disagree that this was a protest vote, but protest votes are no less effective than any other votes in getting people elected.
I don't think I suggested a vote for Reform was a vote for English nationalism, but rather a vote for the broadly disaffected, or "scunnered" as we say in Scotland. A Scottish version of Reform-style English nationalism, if you will.
Aye thanks Kenny, will look up the geography. Indeed protest votes in any direction is powerful. If we engage in the ‘Scottish Reform-style English nationalism’ what would that be except the latest sound bite Mr Fishface comes up with, usually cut ‘n past from the US? Immigration doesn’t seem to move as many in Scotland than North of the border.
The American influence is undeniable.
….and I believe, much of the additional funding for Reform to enable saturation messaging!
Happily there are rules about foreign funding of political parties, but there are loopholes.
Well done. Great article that articulated recent history clearly.
Cheers, Grim.
Another great post with an excellent perspective Kenny thank you.
It’s almost a Shakespearean tragedy to witness canny Scots giving their vote away to the snake oil salesmen of Reform. I cling to the hope that it’s an ‘up yours’ protest. Most bye-elections do that.
It sticks in the throat that Scotland could follow the racist English with support for Farage. He is pure poison and will pollute Scottish political life for a generation if support grows.
I have always favoured severance and an independent nation of Scotland. Voting Reform is a journey backward into the political abyss.
Change always comes dropping slow. The aftermath of
14 years of Tory rule can’t be undone in a heartbeat.
Well said
Thanks Logan. The problem I can foresee is that a protest vote need not be a one-off. It can become a habit, and a purpose.
Fantastic piece, Kenny.
Cheers Steve.
Good analysis Kenny. Not sure about the Scottish Exceptionalism though. We certainly have a “here’s tae us wha’s like us” mentality at times but just because we are different certainly doesn’t make us exceptional and I’m not convinced many people do. Indeed how can we be exceptional and suffer from an undercurrent of sectarian shame at the same time?
Just because we haven’t voted Tory since 1955?
Disappointed that so many people have bought the snake oil being sold by Farage and his cronies but no country is immune from swallowing populist rhetoric. I sincerely hope it’s a protest vote - but against what?
My feeling is it's a Brando thing. What are they rebelling against? What you got? The rebellion is the point.
And the rebels without a cause have an impact because of low turnout at by elections?
Possibly but it's impossible to know if and when they will turn up, and at what election. Unlike the Labour and SNP core vote these people are on nobody's spreadsheet. Nobody knows who they are. No activist will turn up on their doorstep on polling day in a GOTV operation. They are ghosts. But when they move there can be unexpected results.
Also, opinion polls miss them because these people are not political enthusiasts and are accordingly not members of the online panels from which pollsters select their respondents.
The Times has many fine writers but none of them are your equal.
Much too kind, Simon, but thank you.
Great piece. Every cloud......